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Global macro & geopolitics from a small economy perspective

Risk and resilience in a changing world

The motivation for this essay is my view that heightened levels of uncertainty and volatility in the global economy will be a key feature of the next decade, and that an important policy priority for governments will be to build resilience into their economies so that their countries can prosper in a more complex and turbulent world.

Over the past few decades, there has been a significant increase in national exposure to external sources of economic risk and a reduction in the resilience of domestic economies to these risks. Particularly if the global economy is entering a more volatile period, this status quo is unlikely to be sustainable in many countries. Many governments are therefore likely to begin to move to manage their national risk exposures and build resilience so that they can cope with a more volatile world. We will likely see a search for stability and a more managed global system.

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Risk and resilience in a changing world