A turning point in the global economy

The IMF marked up forecast world GDP growth this week to 2.9% in 2023 (from 2.7% forecast in October) as downside risks abate.  Most advanced economies saw a more optimistic outlook, with the notable exception of the UK.  GDP growth is picked to strengthen further in 2024.

The IMF Chief Economist noted that this ‘could represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining’.  Indeed, recent data flow has been positive: GDP growth in Europe and the US is holding up, inflation is reducing, and labour markets remain resilient.  Equity markets have also started the year positively, and even the mood at Davos was positive. 

This note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/a-turning-point-in-the-the-global