Looking to 2025

As is normal at this time of the year, I have been wading through a small mountain of 2025 outlook documents. As is also normal, there is a high degree of clustering – and path dependence – in these forecasts: common themes include ongoing US exceptionalism; a muted outlook for Europe/UK; and some caution on China.

Much of this consensus is sensible, but it discounts the potential for economic, political, and geopolitical dislocation: at-scale disruptions that affect economies and markets in material ways. My assessment is that there is a high likelihood of significant economic and geo/political turbulence in 2025, as global regime change strengthens – reinforced by a second Trump term, which I think will be more consequential than the first term.

Structural geopolitical pressures will continue to build, with important implications for the functioning of the global economy; and domestic politics across many countries will be turbulent – with material economic and commercial consequences. At the same time, there are powerful economic and technology dynamics that are positive for the economic outlook. Taken together, there is a very wide range of possible outcomes across economies and sectors over the next year and beyond

I am finalising preparations for client briefings on the 2025 outlook (get in touch if you would like to schedule a discussion). But to give an indicative sense of what we can expect in 2025, ten developments during December struck me as instructive (listed below in no particular order of importance).

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/looking-to-2025