Global briefing: Growth acceleration?/ Chinese freefall/ Rumours of war/ Populism/ AUKUS

In this week's global briefing:

1. Growth acceleration?: The IMF marked up world growth for 2024 and 2025 on resilient economic data this week; and growth could accelerate faster this year.

2. Chinese freefall: Chinese & Hong Kong equities continue to fall, trading below 2007 levels, reflecting structural challenges. A 2015-style response will be difficult.

3. Wars & rumours of war: A shifting geopolitical context is causing heightened risk and stress around the world, from the Middle East to East Asia.

4. European populism: Far right parties are gaining in the polls across Europe, creating pressure for changed policies from migration to climate and fiscal policy.

5. Small states, geopolitics, & AUKUS: Small states are repositioning in response to rising geopolitical pressure, from the Nordics to NZ. This will have consequences.

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/global-briefing-growth-acceleration