Brave new world

Three years ago on Monday, Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time. The invasion, Ukraine’s remarkable resistance, and the international response, have reshaped the world. In the few weeks that followed the invasion, I wrote several notes arguing that the world was moving into a new geopolitical regime: ‘The end of the beginning’, ‘A week where a decade happened’, and ‘The first world economic war’.

The past week or so has been another week where a decade happened, as President Trump turned his back on the post-World War II European alliance, undercut Ukraine, and sought an accommodation with Russia. A reset in US foreign policy is underway, with deep strategic and economic implications. The broad direction of America First policy is not surprising, but the aggression, tone, and speed is. As the saying goes, ‘it’s risky to be America’s enemy, but it can be fatal to be its friend’.

These developments will accelerate and reinforce a fracturing and rewiring of the global economic and geopolitical system, including divisions across the West. This will be deeply meaningful for firms and investors.

This note selects ten recent developments that provide insights into the shape of the emerging system.

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/brave-new-world