Positioning for Trump

This year’s US Presidential election is the single biggest political risk of 2024, with global economic and geopolitical implications.  Three years on from the storming of Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021, we are odds-on for a second Biden v Trump Presidential election.  Iowa and New Hampshire go to the polls over the next fortnight to kick off primary season.

This note assesses the likelihood of a second Trump win; the economic and geopolitical implications that would follow; and some thoughts on how governments, firms, and investors, should position.

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/positioning-for-trump