Global briefing: Disrupted supply chains/ Inflation slowdown?/ Fiscal drag?/ Migration/ World trade bottoming out

In this week’s global briefing:

1. Disrupted supply chains: The expanding conflict in the Middle East is creating risks to global supply chains and energy prices, with Europe particularly exposed.

2. Inflation slowdown?: Markets are pricing in rate cuts through 2024 as inflation slows; but a more complicated path is likely, with new inflation pressures emerging.

3. Fiscal drag?: Some fiscal stimulus will be withdrawn across many advanced economies, although with limits, with Europe likely more affected than the US.

4. Migration & demographics: Migration has become a core political issue across advanced economies, but migration remains an important offset to demographics.

5. World trade bottoming out: There are early signs of a recovery in world trade, supporting export-oriented small economies.

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/global-briefing-disrupted-supply