Shifting, slowing world trade

From Maersk to China, there are signs of changing patterns of global trade flows – but externally oriented growth models still work

David Skilling11 August 2023

Global briefing: US soft landing?/ China’s charm offensive/ Picking sides in Asia/ De-risking or BAU?/ European heatwaves

Insights on five things that matter this week

David Skilling4 August 2023

Competitive isomorphism & US/China policy convergence

After decades of expecting China to converge to Western economic models, strategic competition is driving convergence of US policy in the other direction

David Skilling27 July 2023

Debt, rates, & balance sheet recessions

Rising rates will constrain governments’ fiscal space on high debt servicing costs and the need to offset reduced private borrowing

David Skilling27 July 2023

Global briefing: China hits back/ Reshaped FDI flows/ Constrained Russia/ Disinflation/ PIGS are flying

Insights on five things that matter this week

David Skilling7 July 2023

Global briefing: Prigozhin/ PM Modi/ Fiscal v monetary policy/ China/ El Nino

Insights on five things that matter this week

David Skilling30 June 2023

AI, productivity, & geopolitics

The disruptive impact of generative AI will boost labour productivity growth and will be a major vector of geopolitical rivalry

David Skilling23 June 2023

Global briefing: Financial decoupling/ NATO+, BRICS, & friendshoring/ Transitory inflation?/ The geopolitics of equity markets/ New Zealand

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling16 June 2023

The need for speed

Disruptive change in the global environment is placing stress on growth models in Europe & beyond, requiring rapid policy responses

David Skilling9 June 2023

China’s (not really) open borders/ Global industrial recession/ EU-US agreeing to disagree/ Beyond the debt ceiling/ Greece

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling2 June 2023

Competing or collaborating?

Even as the G7 aligns on a common approach to China, competitive industrial policy threatens fragmentation across Western economies

David Skilling26 May 2023

Global briefing: The geopolitics of the debt ceiling/ China as peacemaker?/ Financial crisis or credit crunch?/ Weakening Western flows to China/ Sweden

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling19 May 2023

Two cheers for the new Washington Consensus

A new US approach to economic policy is being implemented in response to changed global economic & geopolitical realities

David Skilling12 May 2023

The geopolitics of the Chinese recovery/ Fiscal rules in a wartime economy/ The politics of climate change/ De-dollarisation?/ The Netherlands

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling5 May 2023

Full spectrum strategic competition

Big power strategic competition is strengthening across military, technology, economic, & finance domains, powerfully reshaping the global economy

David Skilling28 April 2023

Inflation higher for longer/ Global economic fragmentation/ Industrial policy arms race/ The geopolitics of luxury/ New Zealand

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling21 April 2023

Fast forward to a new globalisation

Economic & geopolitical factors are rapidly reshaping globalisation, creating substantial new challenges as well as growth opportunities

David Skilling14 April 2023

Global inflation & rates/ Europe goes to Beijing/ Global Britain & TPP/ Taiwan risks/ Finland

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling6 April 2023

The great contraction

After decades of expansion, the global labour force will contract as demographics turn & frictions on global flows strengthen

David Skilling31 March 2023

Mr Xi goes to Moscow/ Financial dominance & central banks/ Green industrial policy/ The economics of China’s reopening/ Switzerland

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling24 March 2023