Five notable things I’m watching this week
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Thoughts on the impact of national scale on the winners and losers from global economic and political regime change
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12 months on from Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, deep changes are underway in the global economic & political system
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Covid has had an enduring impact, from labour markets to the return of the state, despite the unwinding of some pandemic booms
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The disruption of pandemic & war creates noise in the economic data; but there are reasons for confidence in the global economic outlook
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Even as transitory inflation fades, pressures due to global strategic competition are building – shaping inflation, rates, & monetary policy
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The stresses of the past few years have highlighted the strengths & weaknesses of countries in a period of regime change
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Forecasts for 2022 – from inflation to Ukraine – were generally off the mark. So in a world of deep uncertainty, what might surprise in 2023?
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If 2022 was the ‘end of the beginning’, 2023 will be a year in which emerging global dynamics go mainstream. Position for war by other means.
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Weaker world trade growth adds zero sum dynamics to the structural shifts underway in the global economic & political system.
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The West has been coherent in response to Russia, but faultlines are emerging between the US & other Western-oriented countries. 2022 may be peak West.
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The experiences of small economy hubs – from Dubai to Ireland, Hong Kong, Singapore, & Switzerland – highlight the impact of a changing global economy
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Beyond the stormy economic forecasts in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the data also capture structural changes underway in the global system
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Expect to see the state expand its role, on the back of disruptive changes in the global economic & political environment
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My travels in Europe, the Middle East, & North Africa this week showed variation in economic outlook, as well as in positioning for a new global regime
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A gap is emerging between government & firm responses to geopolitical tensions: firms are moving more slowly, creating risks
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Economic & political risks are rising around the world. But governments, firms, & investors should be looking to new opportunities as well as managing risks.
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My recent travels to New Zealand & Singapore highlighted more similarities (concerns on geopolitics, inflation) than differences between Asia & Europe
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Despite the focus on big powers and mega firms, scale is not everything in the global economy. Smaller, agile firms & countries often have an edge.
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Economies with high core inflation tend to have the tightest labour markets; monetary policy is not enough to reduce inflation
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