Globalisation is changing but not unwinding: global flows will be more regional, political, & shaped by big power rivalry
Read More
My take on the issues that will shape the agenda for 2022, from Covid & inflation, to geopolitics, globalisation, & climate change (& more)
Read More
High inflation is a deeply political as well as economic process, redistributing income across the economy – from negative real wage growth to more fiscal space
Read More
20 years on from China’s WTO accession, we have likely reached the high water mark of China’s global engagement – with deep consequences for the world economy
Read More
Economics shapes geopolitical relations, notably with China. But many countries are increasingly rebalancing between economics & politics.
Read More
The globalisation debate offers lessons on what to do (and what not to do) in climate change policy: address the domestic politics of the transition
Read More
Beyond near-term inflation concerns, policy should focus on managing price pressures from structural changes in labour markets & globalisation - and net zero
Read More
International institutions have been challenged for some time, but pressures are building. New, flexible platforms are emerging in response.
Read More
Six months on from the grounding of a super-sized container ship, the financial stresses of China’s largest property developer cause another global risk event. And more shocks are likely.
Read More
As we wait for a post-Covid world to arrive, we may need to adjust our expectations. And some countries will need to adjust their approaches for new Covid realities.
Read More
The scale and duration of the Covid shock has led to structural changes in policy and business models: a post-Covid reset is more likely than mean reversion
Read More
The nature of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan reminds of the unilateral withdrawal from the Bretton Woods arrangements 50 years ago. Big powers act like big powers.
Read More
As the IPCC warns on global climate change, the experience of managing Covid provides a perspective on the likely policy response.
Read More
Geopolitical competition will continue to intensify, imposing costs – but also creating strong incentives for investment in innovation.
Read More
There is deep uncertainty as we look into a post-Covid world. Decision-making will need to respond.
Read More
It is great to see a functional G7 again. But these economies do not have a monopoly on wisdom, and there are risks with a large country economic policy-making cartel.
Read More
Past Covid performance is no guarantee of future success. Avoiding the winner's curse will require changes to national risk tolerance over time (& constructive paranoia).
Read More
Inflation is shaped by political dynamics as much as economic factors, suggesting that inflation is more of a medium-term risk.
Read More
The strength of the global recovery process varies around the world, but small advanced economies suggest that the global economy is in good shape.
Read More